• Home
  • »
  • Focus
  • Home
  • Executive Jobs
  • Features
    • Focus
    • Career Couch
    • Radar
    • Water Cooler
    • Insight
    • Podcasts
  • Place an executive ad

Trade deals a blow to economy

By Chris Zappone | smh.com.au | 01 September
Email to a friend
Print
Increased Text
Decreased Text

Update Australia's current account deficit doubled in the June quarter, a worse-than-expected shortfall that may push the economy into contraction for the period, economists say.

In a separate gauge of economic health, building approvals surged in July. The seasonally adjusted deficit blew out to $13.35 billion in the June quarter from a deficit of $6.35 billion in the March quarter, as lower iron ore prices begin to filter through to Australia's resource sector, according to official data released today.

Economists expected the gap to widen only to $10.7 billion. The sharp drop in net exports helped widen the deficit. Trade in goods and services moved from a $4.3 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2009 to a $1.7 billion deficit in the second quarter.

''This is a timely reminder of the dramatic impact of the global recession on the Australian economy,'' Treasurer Wayne Swan told reporters in Canberra.

The 15.8 per cent fall in total export prices was the largest fall in the 50-year history of the data series, Mr Swan said. Exports slumped to $61.4 billion in the second quarter from $72.2 billion in the first quarter, while imports dropped to $63.1 billion from $68 billion in the first quarter, according to Moody's Economy.com.
 
GDP drag

''We will post a small positive if we're lucky,'' said ICAP economist Adam Carr, referring to the drag the trade numbers will put on the overall economy for the period.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the shortfall is expected to subtract 0.2 percentage points from second quarter GDP growth. Mr Carr said the trade shift could alone slash the expected growth pace for second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) to just 0.1 per cent, from a 0.4 per cent growth in the first quarter.

On 4Cast Ltd's numbers, though, second quarter GDP will now record a contraction of 0.1 per cent, based on today's grim current account data. Government spending, though, may help keep the economy out of contraction. Other figures out today show public spending increased 0.8 per cent in real terms for the June quarter, helping to offset the reduction from trade.

Data on inventories out yesterday, though, are likely to trim as much as 0.9 percentage points from GDP growth, according to 4Cast. The Australian dollar was little changed, trading recently at 84.4 US cents on the flood of figures.

The dollar later fell to as low as 84.15 US cents after the RBA left interest rates on hold at 3 per cent.

Coal and iron

''I think the balance of payments clearly shows the impact of the global recession on the Australian economy,'' said RBC Capital Market Su-Lin Ong. ''Obviously the big deterioration in the trade component reflects lower annual coal and iron prices and that's a function of what's been happening globally.''

RBC Capital Market predicts a 0.2 per cent pace of growth for second quarter GDP. Ms Ong said the first quarter GDP could also be revised downward when the data is released tomorrow, taking into account the revised wider trade gap revealed today for the period.

Building approvals jump

The construction sector, however, offers a more positive read on the economy, according to other figures out today.

Building approvals rose by 7.7 per cent in July from the previous month, following a 9.3 per cent increase in June, as the sector continues to rebound, spurred by low interest rates and the first-home buyers grant boost ''The housing recovery is in full swing,'' said Mr Carr. '

'It's exactly what we wanted to see.'' He said the stronger-than-expected building number - analysts forecast only a 3.3 per cent increase - presses home the need for the Reserve Bank to remove some of the stimulus from lower interest rates.

Approvals fell by 3.9 per cent per cent in the year to July from a 14.3 per cent drop in the year June. RBS's Ms Ong said the building approval data shows a counterweight to the drag on the economy caused by faltering trade.

''You've got some strong building approvals which show you the leading indicators of the economy are stronger.'' ''And clearly the monetary and fiscal stimulus is having a pretty decent impact.''

The Australian Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release national accounts for the June quarter, including the GDP figures, at 11.30 am, Sydney time, tomorrow.

czappone@fairfax.com.au

First published by Smh.com.au on September 01 2009
Visit smh.com.au for the latest news updated throughout the day

More Focus news

  • Pressure mounting on Canberra in struggle for copyright control
  • Casting a spell on the priests of voodoo finance
  • Jobs boom could mean budget surplus next year
  • Resigned to the daily grind
  • More focus
  • Home

Focus news

  • Pressure mounting on Canberra in struggle for copyright control
  • Casting a spell on the priests of voodoo finance
  • Jobs boom could mean budget surplus next year
  • Resigned to the daily grind
  • More focus

Executive jobs

  • Rail Signal Engineers x 2$150,000 pkg Brisbane Metro, QLDLeading global consultancy requires two Signal Engineers to join their growing team in Brisbane. Up to $150K package depending on experience view job1/03/2010
  • Executive Mining Engineer$161,757 - $187,430 Brisbane Metro, QLDSimtars has an exciting opportunity for a results oriented person with expert experience in mining engineering. The organisation This is your... view job12/03/2010
  • Business Development Manager$200,000 neg. pkg Melbourne Metro, VIC$200,000 package - Global Enterprise...Melbourne Based/ Senior Sales RoleIT Enterprise solutions into key...View job3/03/2010
  • Project Engineer (Rail Projects)$130,000 neg. pkg Sydney Metro, NSWRail Station Upgrades.$130K NegSouth Western Suburbs Location.View job3/03/2010
  • Business Development Manager - Ultrasound / X-Ray / Medical Imaging$120,000 - $220,000 Sydney CBD, NSW 2000Massive International ManufacturerDefined Career Path / Structured ReviewsLucrative Base Salary + Car / Car...View job3/03/2010

Career Couch news

  • How to hit your target
  • No need to tick all the boxes
  • Play the boardroom game
  • Networking for work
  • More career couch

Podcasts

VV Show #49 - Rafat Ali of paidContent and contentNext
Download the MP3. Attention entrepreneurs dealing with the current economic downturn: This interview is for you. After working as a journalist for Jason Calacanis at Silicon Alley Reporter, Rafat Ali ended up broke in a market with a dearth of employment opportunities. To try to find a new job, Rafat created paidContent.org as an "interactive resume." Luckily, no one hired him. From these humble beginnings, Rafat bootstrapped his blog holding company, ContentNext Media, for four years before taking a small investment from famed media investor Alan Patricof in June 2006. From its inception paidContent has doubled revenues each year and was recently acquired by UK-based Guardian Media Group for a rumored $30 million. Listen in as Rafat outlines the past, present, and future of online media, while sharing his war stories from another uncertain economic time.

Harvard Business IdeaCast 141: Use Failure to Grow Your Business
Featured Guest: Rita McGrath, coauthor of "Discovery-Driven Growth." Copyright 2009 Harvard Business School Publishing

More Podcasts
Home | Executive Jobs | Focus | Career Couch | Radar | Water Cooler | Insight | Podcasts | Sitemap | Contact us | Privacy Policy | Conditions of Use | Advertising Terms | About us | Place an Executive Ad
Fairfax Digital
NEWS | MYCAREER | DOMAIN | DRIVE | FINANCE | MOBILE | RSVP | TRAVEL | WEATHER
  member centre | login  
Fairfax Digital
  member centre | network map | mobile | advertise with us | place a classified ad  
SMH | THE AGE | BRISBANE TIMES | THE FINANCIAL REVIEW | MYCAREER | DOMAIN | DRIVE | RSVP | FINANCE | FAIRFAX NZ