Look before you leap
By Clive Hopkins | smh.com.au | 14 July
As economic uncertainty, interest-rate hysteria and whispers of the dreaded "R-word" (recession), sweep the nation, job seekers are starting to wonder what the short-term future holds.
After several years in which candidates appeared to have the upper hand over employers, is the boot now on the other foot?
Is it a good time to consider changing jobs? And might the next job you get be the one you stay with for longer than you expected?
"Eight months ago, the economy was sailing along and everything looked good," says Craig James, chief economist with CommSec.
"Now, though, businesses are finding it harder to raise finance. The cost of raising money has gone up internationally."
James says this means businesses are questioning whether they really need extra staff. Despite this, entry-level staff in the 20-29 age range are still in short supply. As James puts it, "If you have good skills that are in demand and good experience, you won't see much change in the market."
For other age groups, demand for employees varies. James says the decrease in consumer spending will make it tougher in sectors such as finance, retail and residential property.
Workers in commercial construction, mining and engineering are likely to remain in high demand.
Many state governments, for example, have increased spending on big construction projects including hospitals, schools and roads, creating job opportunities.
But Grahame Doyle, director of recruitment specialist Hays, says there is always a difference between big economic indicators, such as inflation rates, and what is happening in the employment market.
He says NSW is the perfect example of this. "While growth in NSW is low, relative to other parts of Australia, there is still an employment shortage. There is no immediate prospect of dampening of job opportunities in the market."
He says the tens of thousands of job vacancies advertised nationally are a testament to this. Further, he says, although economists are keen to measure business confidence and consumer confidence, no one ever analyses employee confidence.
"My feeling, as a recruiter, is that this is still high," he says. "A lot of vacancies are actually created by employee confidence."
Doyle says younger workers are the most confident about their employment opportunities and are often happy to seek new employment to develop their careers as quickly as possible.
Despite his sunny predictions, Doyle advises people to weigh up all the risks before changing jobs.
"A career move is best thought of as a decision for two to three years," he says. "But the best economic predictions only extend six months into the future. It's a bit of a dilemma."
Peter Gleeson, executive general manager for sales and marketing at recruitment specialist Chandler McLeod, agrees. He has detected a subtle shift in the attitudes of employers in recent months.
"There's a move back towards contract employment that we've not seen in the last three years," he says. "It's all about risk management: try before you buy."
Gleeson believes this is driven by economic insecurity and uncertainty about the future of WorkChoices legislation.
"A year ago, employers were asking, 'Can we afford not to employ this person?"' Gleeson says. "Now, they are asking, 'Can we afford to employ them?"'
When vacancies occur, Gleeson says employers are now reviewing their options - in particular, whether or not they can get by with what they've got.
He says staff will be expected to be more productive, which can breed cynicism. This fuels the cycle, as more people then consider changing jobs.
Recently, Gleeson has noticed a trend where candidates get to an advanced stage in the process of changing jobs, then change their minds. Despite this, he says the reasons for people wanting to change their jobs don't go away - and with an expectation of improved performance, those reasons can possibly increase.
"Experience shows, though, that candidates [in this situation] will change jobs within six to 12 months anyway."
The overall picture may seem mixed, however the job market is still very tight, with unemployment close to the lowest it has been in 34 years.
"Businesses have to get used to unemployment rates of about 4per cent," James says. "They need to be more focused on keeping staff happy."
First published by Smh.com.au on July 14 2008
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